IEEFA is convinced that the seaborne thermal coal market has entered structural decline. Having peaked in 2009 and rebound again in 2011, the seaborne price has since fallen 70%.
The Australian export benchmark is the Newcastle 6,000kcal net as received (NAR) free on board (FOB) index. In September 2015 this coal index price is US$55/t.
The Newcastle coal forwards factor in prices remaining below US$53/t through to 2021.
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