The Australian Thermal Coal Industry Facing Global Structural Decline Headwinds

IEEFA is convinced that the seaborne thermal coal market has entered structural decline. Having peaked in 2009 and rebound again in 2011, the seaborne price has since fallen 70%.

The Australian export benchmark is the Newcastle 6,000kcal net as received (NAR) free on board (FOB) index. In September 2015 this coal index price is US$55/t.

The Newcastle coal forwards factor in prices remaining below US$53/t through to 2021.

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