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China thermal coal imports could reach 285–310 million tonnes by the end of 2026, with a conditional central estimate of 295 million tonnes. Maintaining October’s arrival pace would deliver around 289 million tonnes, leaving stronger winter buying needed to close the gap. The analysis examines how power-plant stocks, domestic deliveries, generation requirements and landed prices could shape year-end purchases. It […]
Coal-fired generation faces contrasting pressures across major markets as renewable expansion competes with rising electricity demand. China and India recorded declines in coal-fired output in 2025, while US coal generation rose by 13%, highlighting how demand growth and national energy conditions shape coal’s role. This wider energy-transition study examines developments across 65 countries. Its country assessments explore China’s displacement of […]
Coal plant retirement in Southeast Asia depends on resolving contractual and financing barriers while building the generation, grids and storage needed to replace coal output. Existing power-purchase agreements, young coal fleets and rising electricity demand can prolong plant operations even as renewable investment expands. The report reviews Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia, with detailed analysis of Malaysia and the […]
Asian LNG-to-power projects face mounting cost and financing barriers in the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Bangladesh, with implications for competition between fuels in these coal-consuming markets. Between 2021 and 2026, 49 proposed LNG-fired power plants and 22 import terminals were cancelled or inactive across the four countries. This five-year review focuses on LNG project outcomes, examining fuel-price volatility, gas-turbine shortages, […]
The coal market outlook points to global consumption rising by 1.2% in 2026 before declining modestly in 2027. Higher natural gas prices are supporting coal use in Asia, while supply constraints and uncertainty over Indonesian exports are influencing market conditions. These findings form the dedicated coal section of a broader commodities report covering energy, agriculture, fertilizers, metals and minerals. The […]
Global coal prices weakened sharply as fading geopolitical risk premiums and lower gas and oil prices pulled European and South African futures lower. December API2 fell to about $133.6/t, while API4 dropped to $124.3/t, with buyers across Asia also remaining cautious as domestic supply improved and high import costs limited fresh demand. Chinese thermal coal buyers stayed cautious as stable […]
Coal shipments are expected to grow by up to 2% in 2026, as tighter gas supplies support demand in several importing markets. Looking ahead, the outlook depends partly on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with a recovery in LNG supply expected to reduce reliance on coal. Between 2026 and 2028, coal shipments are projected to fall by 0–2% […]
China’s coal-to-olefins production has gained a competitive advantage as disruptions to Gulf energy supplies raise the cost of imported petrochemical feedstocks. The analysis estimates that average cash margins for integrated coal-based plants rose from $31 to $345 per tonne of olefins during March–August 2026, while naphtha-based margins turned negative. Domestic coal offers a hedge against imported oil and gas feedstock […]
Metallurgical coal demand could be 10–15% lower than business as usual in the EU, China and India if steelmakers widely adopt direct reduced iron (DRI) production using coke oven gas. The approach combines existing coke-making operations with renewable electricity and electrification, allowing more iron to be produced from a given quantity of metallurgical coal. The report examines how replacing onsite […]