Russian coal industry losses may fall threefold in 2027

Russian coal industry losses could decline substantially in 2027, although high financing costs, rail tariffs and other structural pressures are expected to persist.

The Ministry of Energy forecasts that the net loss of the Russian coal industry in 2027 will drop more than threefold — to 1.19 billion USD. In 2026, the industry’s loss is expected to hit USD 3.58–3.70 bln, which is 24–29% less than last year’s figure. Meanwhile, the share of unprofitable companies is set to remain at 70%. In March, the Ministry of Energy forecasted that the loss would balloon up to 6.88 bln USD.

However, lower losses are projected assuming stable production and exports, as well as the preservation of current global coal prices, driven by rising oil and gas markets, accidents at mines in China and India, and tighter regulation in Indonesia.

Besides, the financial obligations and expenses of coal companies remain high, and it is premature to speak of an imminent end to the crisis in the industry. A more realistic estimate appears to be 1.79–2.39 bln USD, since no new deferrals of tax payments for coal producers are planned, the ruble exchange rate remains strong, interest rates are high, and rail transportation costs are steadily increasing every year (outpacing inflation).

Net losses of Russian coal companies in January-July 2026 amounted to 2.5 bln USD, according to preliminary data, compared to 2.3 bln USD for the same period last year. Of the 246 mio t of coal mined in January–July, 2026, only 33% were not loss-making.

Coal production by the end of 2026 is expected to decline to 430 mio t (-4 mio t y-o-y).

Source: CCA