Russian coal exports are facing growing pressure from logistics costs, sanctions and weakening margins in the Chinese market.
In January-May 2026, Russian coal supplies to China dropped to 28.1 mio t (-7.5 mio t or -21.1% vs. Jan-May 2025), according to the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC).
The decrease in Russian coal supplies resulted from high railway tariffs, logistical issues, international sanctions and ruble appreciation. Given depressed global prices, these factors are forcing most producers to export coal at zero or negative margins, which will likely lead to further production and supply cuts in the near term.
In Jan-May 2026, China’s total coal imports decreased to 182.6 mio t (-6.1 mio t or -3.2% vs. Jan-May 2025).
China’s total coal imports in 2025 dipped to 490.5 mio t (-52.3 mio t or -9.6% y-o-y).
Indonesia, China’s largest coal supplier, reduced its exports to 73.8 mio t in Jan-May 2026 (-5.5 mio t or -6.9% y-o-y ).
In the first five months of 2026, Mongolia continued to boost its coal shipments to 49.3 mio t (+18.6 mio t or +60.6% y-o-y), securing its second place among coal exporters to China.
It is followed by Russia with supplies of 28.1 mio t (-7.5 mio t or -21.1% y-o-y), although last year Russia was the second-largest supplier after Indonesia.
Australia slipped to the fourth place, exporting 25.0 mio t (-5.9 mio t or -19.1% y-o-y).
Market share shifts among major suppliers (5 months 2026 vs. 5 months 2025):
· Indonesia: 40.4% (-1.6 p.p.);
· Mongolia: 27.0% (+10.7 p.p.);
· Russia: 15.4% (-3.5 p.p.);
· Australia: 13.7% (-2.7 p.p.);
· Others: 3.5% (-3.0 p.p).
Despite strong demand, Russian coal exports to China continue to decline due to systemic issues and crisis in the coal industry, potentially leading to Russia’s shrinking market share and growing competitive pressure from other suppliers.
Source: CCA
