Russian coal exports to China may grow up to 100 mio t per year over the next 5 years, while Russia’s supplies to India could amount to about 40 mio t. In general, the growth potential of exports to Asia is estimated at additional 50-60 mio t. Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and Sri Lanka are among the most prospective destinations.
After the ban on coal imports from Russia to the EU countries, China became the largest importer of Russian coal in 2022. Export shipments from Russia increased by 25% to 67.1 mio t. In 2022, Russia became the second largest coal exporter to China after Indonesia. At the same time, exports to India tripled to 20 mio t.
China is adding additional coal-fired generating capacity, having started in 2022 the construction of power plants with a total installed capacity of 165 GW. By 2025, Chinese coal-fired generation is expected to grow up to 270 GW.
Russia’s export advantages remain the higher CV of coal compared to Indonesian material and lower prices in comparison with Australian products.
Nevertheless, the possibilities of coal exports to the South-East are constrained by the insufficient development of railway infrastructure. First of all, it is necessary to expand the capacity of railroads on the Eastern range.
In H1 2023, Russian coal exports to China surged to 51.7 mio t (+23.9 mio t or +86% vs. H1 2022). Deliveries to India doubled, amounting to 14.8 mio t (+7.7 mio t or +108.5% vs. H1 2022).