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China coal demand is poised to rebound in 2026 as power demand growth reaccelerates after a weak 2025, driven by rising residential consumption, data centre expansion, AI-related load and electric vehicle penetration. While renewables and nuclear will deliver most of the incremental supply, they are unlikely to fully cover peak and low-output periods, leaving coal-fired generation to retain its role […]
Asia pacific coal demand is expected to decline over the next decade, but the pace and impact vary widely depending on policy ambition. New modelling shows that while transition risks increase—particularly for higher-cost producers—low-cost exporters are likely to retain or even expand market share as the sector consolidates. Asia pacific coal demand is projected to weaken gradually as decarbonisation policies […]
Global thermal coal prices moved higher this week, supported by a stronger energy complex and tightening supply across several key export regions. In Europe, API2 futures advanced as a sharp rebound in Dutch TTF gas prices improved coal’s relative competitiveness in the power sector, encouraging gas-to-coal switching and lifting near-term sentiment. In Asia, API4 prices strengthened on firm buying interest […]
The EU ETS continues to set the framework for coal use within Europe’s power market by influencing dispatch economics and fuel-switching decisions. While carbon costs constrain coal’s baseload role, coal remains available as a flexible option during periods of gas price volatility, low renewable output or system stress. The EU ETS sets the operating framework for coal within the European […]
While the primary focus of this report is China’s energy transition, it nevertheless shows how resilient coal remains within the country’s power and industrial systems, even as renewables and electrification expand rapidly. China coal demand continues to be underpinned by power-sector capacity requirements, ongoing coal plant development and limited retirement activity, highlighting the gap between transition ambition and system realities. […]
Coal continues to provide dispatchable power during periods of tight gas supply and high electricity demand, while metallurgical coal exports remain a key source of support for the US coal sector. While renewables dominate new capacity additions in the United States, US coal continues to provide dispatchable power during periods of tight gas supply and high electricity demand. At the […]
Global thermal coal prices moved higher this week, underpinned by tightening supply conditions across key export regions, even as demand signals remained mixed. Supply constraints in Indonesia, rail and port bottlenecks in South Africa, and firmer buying interest from China provided upward pressure on prices, offsetting softer consumption trends in parts of Europe and India. Regional divergence remained pronounced. Chinese […]
Coal-fired power continues to play a central role in the electricity systems of China and India, supplying the majority of power generation despite rapid growth in renewable capacity. Together, the two countries account for nearly 40% of global electricity demand, with coal still providing around 58% of generation in China and 75% in India, supported by relatively young plant fleets […]
Australian coal exports are set to follow diverging paths over the outlook period, with thermal coal export earnings forecast to ease from $32 billion in 2024–25 to $27 billion by 2026–27, reflecting softer demand and pricing. In contrast, metallurgical coal exports are expected to remain resilient at around $36–37 billion, underpinned by sustained steelmaking demand and Australia’s role as a […]