Dry bulk market outlook: coal shipments expected to fall

Coal shipments are forecast to fall by 4.0% between 2023 and 2025. Fast growth in domestic mining in India and increased renewable electricity production could curb demand. Coal shipments could fall by 1-2% in 2024 and 2-3% in 2025. We now expect a lower decline in coal shipments than in our previous update. Whereas India has continued to ramp up coal mining, China saw its production fall 4.1% y/y during the first quarter of 2024, supporting imports. In Shanxi, one of China’s largest mining regions, safety concerns emerged, and officials are now expecting a 4% fall in local