Australian coal price forecasts signal a steady medium-term outlook
December 2, 2025
Coal market imbalances the 2014 reality
> Thermal and coking coal prices weak as market over-supplied
> Demand still growing steadily – global thermal coal trade up by 5% pa – driven by India and China. Japan desperate to ensure supply given nuclear uncertainty.
> Marginal suppliers to Asia (e.g. USA) being squeezed out
> Costs and shareholder returns focus
> Australian producers waiting for someone else to blink, but can it last?
> Signs that rail providers willing to share some pain on ‘take or pay’
> 25 per cent of all Qld coal produced at a loss (and half of all thermal coal)
> 10 per cent of all Qld coal produced at a loss of more than $US14/tonne
