Seaborne thermal coal trade expected to ease through 2028

Seaborne thermal coal traded within a relatively tight range for almost a decade—roughly 940 million to 1,095 million tonnes annually, with no clear direction either way. That period may now be ending.

DBX’s latest Long-Term Coal Monitor forecasts seaborne thermal coal trade declining from 1,027 million tonnes in 2026 to 1,001 million tonnes in 2027 and 954 million tonnes in 2028. Indonesia’s tightening domestic market obligation rules are squeezing exportable tonnage just as the import requirements of China and India ease amid ample, inexpensive domestic supply.

Metallurgical coal presents a different picture. The headline figure remains almost unchanged—moving from 391 million tonnes to 393 million tonnes and then 389 million tonnes through 2028—but this stability conceals a structural shift.

Mongolia’s projected exports increased from approximately 60 million tonnes to 85 million tonnes in a single monthly model revision as Chinese steelmakers increasingly favour coal transported overland by rail instead of seaborne cargoes.

On its current trajectory, Mongolia could rival every metallurgical coal exporter except Australia within the next few years. The result is two markedly different outlooks: a contracting seaborne thermal coal market and a metallurgical coal trade increasingly shifting towards overland supply.

Source: DBX Commodities, August 2026.