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Tag: El Niño

Chart showing Indonesian thermal coal exports from 2022 to 2026, highlighting weaker export buffers ahead of a forecast El Niño event in mid-2026.

Indonesian coal exports face renewed El Niño risk as supply buffers weaken

Line chart of Indonesia's monthly thermal coal exports (Mt) showing actual exports as a dark blue line with fluctuations; orange shaded window marks the 2023 stress period, and a pale red curved line projects a thinner buffer into 2026. Annotations note Jun–Sep 2023 at -8.1% YoY (full-year +12.9%), 2024 monthly average around 45.4 Mt, and Q1 2026 at -27% vs Q1 2024 with baseline softening; El Niño Watch 2026 Jun–Sep forecast window is indicated, with a red shaded area toward mid-2026 indicating risk. Source details at bottom.

Indonesia thermal coal bullish into H2 2026 as El Niño tightens supply

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