Global coal prices showed divergent dynamics across key markets this week.
Global coal market saw divergent dynamics: prices fell in Europe; material became more expensive in China; in Australia, thermal coal quotations remained flat, while metallurgical indices strengthened.
On the European coal market, prices corrected below 110 USD/t. Pressure came from a sharp decline in gas and oil quotations following statements by US officials about a possible memorandum of understanding with Iran that would end military action. The parties are engaged in indirect negotiations and a breakthrough is expected soon on the issue of vessels blocked in the Strait of Hormuz.
Coal price upside was also capped by rising renewables and a smaller-than-expected switch to coal, especially amid seasonal demand decline in spring. ARA terminals also have adequate inventory levels, so spot deals were seen infrequently.
Gas quotations on the TTF hub dropped 7% on the week to 545.47 USD/1,000 m3 (-10.50 USD/1,000 m3 w-o-w). EU underground gas storage is 34% full (+2 ppts w-o-w), though below last year’s level of 41%. Stocks at ARA terminals increased over week to 3.00 mio t (+0.19 mio t).
South African High-CV 6,000 rose to 116 USD/t. Market participants noted that traders are opening positions in anticipation of higher demand from industrial buyers in May and June. Meanwhile, truck deliveries of coal to South African ports fell due to rising diesel prices driven by the Middle East conflict.
Glencore’s thermal coal production declined slightly (down 2% y-o-y) to 22.9 mio t in Q1 2026, with output in South Africa virtually unchanged at 3 mio t for the export market and 1.1 mio t for domestic consumers.
In China, spot prices for 5,500 NAR coal at the port of Qinhuangdao strengthened above 117 USD/t amid forecasts that northern and central China will see temperatures of 35–37°C next week, with average readings over the next ten days 1–3°C above seasonal norms.
However, market activity slowed due to Labor Day holidays. Additionally, reports of price declines have become more frequent in mining regions as consumers hold sufficient inventories. Many buyers warn that FOB price gains may end once coastal power plants complete their restocking.
Coal stocks at 9 major ports stood at 26.90 mio t (+0.70 mio t w-o-w), while inventories at 6 major coastal thermal power plants rose to 12.92 mio t (+0.28 mio t w-o-w).
Indonesian 5,900 GAR strengthened to nearly 95 USD/t, while 4,200 GAR also edged up to 61.6 USD/t. China’s return to active participation in the Asian thermal coal market after the week-long May holidays was marked by renewed interest in Indonesian coal. However, ongoing supply constraints in major producing regions have reduced availability not only of low-CV but also mid- and high-CV material.
Indonesian authorities reiterated plans to cut coal production to around 600 mio t this year from 817 mio t in 2025, amid speculation that the government may revise its budget-focused approach to coal exports. Speaking at the Indonesia Miner 2026 industry event in Jakarta, a government official confirmed the intention to reduce coal output for decarbonization purposes and long-term resource conservation.
Australian High-CV 6,000 remained virtually unchanged at 131 USD/t. Inquiries from China jumped sharply as some consumers prepare for a hotter-than-usual peak summer season.
According to January–March 2026 data, the impact of the Middle East crisis on Australian coal producers’ costs was reflected in higher production costs for thermal coal: TerraCom reported a 30% increase, while Coronado Global Resources reported a 60% rise.
Australia’s HCC metallurgical coal index climbed to 233 USD/t, caused by increased interest in premium material for June loading and company announcements of production cuts. Sentiment also improved in China following gains in futures contracts.
Peabody Energy lowered its 2026 production guidance from 3.5 mio t to 2.5 mio t because of issues at the Centurion mine in Q1 2026.
Glencore reported a 22% drop in metallurgical coal production in Q1 2026 to 6.5 mio t from 8.3 mio t. The decline was attributed to a longwall move at the Oak Creek mine and adverse weather in Queensland. Coronado Global Resources also reported a 21% drop in production at its Curragh mine in Q1 2026 to 1.7 mio t, resulting from a two-week plant shutdown and a six-week suspension of the Mammoth section following a fatality.
Source: CCA
