Australian thermal & met coal: demand holds up but prices to decline

Prices for Newcastle 6,000 kcal thermal coal dropped to US$122 a tonne in November 2023, compared with US$159 a tonne in September 2023. The price weakness largely reflects high stockpiles in China and fewer supply disruptions. Prices are expected to drift lower as supply rises and demand moderates over the outlook period. A return to more favourable production conditions is expected to see Australian thermal coal exports rise from 182 Mt in 2022–23 to 203 Mt by 2024–25. Australia’s metallurgical exports are forecast to lift from 156 Mt in 2022–23 to 169 Mt in 2024–25 as several new mines open. […]