Russian coal exports to China by rail declined sharply in Jan-Jul 2026 as weaker demand, domestic competition and weather-related disruption weighed on trade.
In January-July 2026, Russian railway coal exports to China via border crossings dropped to 8.6 mio t (-2.7 mio t or -23.7% vs. Jan-Jul 2025).
The main reasons for the decline in exports to China via border crossings were limited demand from utilities and industrial consumers, along with competition from coal supply on the Chinese domestic market.
Oversupply and abnormal weather conditions (the heavy rains observed since May) disrupted logistics and resulted in lower business activity, which caused a temporary slowdown in coal consumption and put downward pressure on domestic prices.
Furthermore, extreme weather conditions led to the suspension of operations at numerous industrial facilities and also hampered trading in the coal market because of logistical issues, which limited new deals.
The demand may start to recover amid tighter safety checks at Chinese coal mines and the approach of China’s winter restocking season (October–November).
Nevertheless, suppliers could redirect volumes from border crossings to Far East ports, resulting from recent gains in seaborne Mid-CV prices to China.
Source: CCA
