According to a recent whitepaper by Kpler, China coal demand is expected to recover in 2026 as power demand growth reaccelerates after the slowdown seen in 2025, underlining China’s outsized influence on global coal market dynamics.
In accompanying commentary, a senior Kpler analyst and co-author of the report reflects on how earlier forecasts of weaker Chinese coal imports played out — and why, in coal markets, getting China right remains central to understanding broader supply–demand balances.
In coal markets, getting China right means getting most of the market right. One of the proudest achievements in my work last year was correctly forecasting the decline in China’s thermal coal receipts in late 2024.
At the time, some subscribers reached out to confirm if there was an error in our supply and demand figures following the sharp downward revision to China. That feedback led me to write a white paper explaining why China’s coal import volumes were likely to contract in 2025. I later presented this view at Coaltrans in India, where the main criticism was that my assumptions on power demand were fundamentally wrong and that demand would grow much faster and import volumes would remain firm.
After a period of uncertainty, it became clear that the forecast was accurate. The weakness in Chinese imports materialised, contributing to oversupply challenges for some market participants, while others were able to benefit by building their 2025 strategies around China using this analysis.
This year the consensus has shifted again. Weakness in China is now largely taken as a given, while the view that demand may not decline has become the outlier.
Taking a view is always possible, and many analysts can draw forecast lines — but fewer invest enough effort in clearly explaining the logic and assumptions behind those forecasts.
Source
Kpler – China 2026 power and fossil fuel outlook
Insights by Firat E. and Neng Xiong CFA
