Losses of Russian coal companies reach 4 bln USD in 2025 YTD
December 2, 2025
China coal imports have fallen sharply in 2025, down around 52 mt year-to-date as stronger domestic production and rapid renewable expansion reduce seaborne demand . Weaker Chinese appetite for thermal coal has weighed on global tonne-miles for Capesize vessels, while Panamaxes remain supported by Indonesian flows. With domestic output slowing into winter, China may temporarily revive imports to rebuild stocks, but the long-term trend points to declining coal import dependence.
China’s thermal coal imports have dropped by around 14% year-on-year, reducing global Capesize demand as the country has imported 52 mt less coal so far in 2025 .
The decline is driven by a combination of stronger domestic coal production—up 1.5% y/y—and fast-expanding renewable generation displacing thermal power. As a result, global thermal coal tonne-miles are running below both 2024 and 2023 levels, and Capesize tonne-days remain weak despite a recent seasonal rebound.
While China’s reliance on coal for electricity still accounts for around 64% of power generation, rising renewables and slower coal-fired output point to long-term structural reduction in import needs.
Yet with domestic production easing into Q4 and winter demand rising, China may temporarily increase imports to stabilise stocks, especially from Indonesia, which supplied 64% of Chinese imports since 2022.
This shift supports Panamax demand even as Capesize exposure declines.
Source (and original article and charts): The SIGNAL Group
