According to recent forecasts, the indexation of rail freight transportation tariffs from December 01, 2025, could reach 10%. Significant increases are also projected for subsequent years: approximately 8.3% from January 01, 2027, and 6% from January 01, 2028.
The potential tariff hike exacerbates an already critical situation in the Russian coal industry, which is facing a deep crisis. On the back of falling global coal prices, high ruble volatility, and rising domestic costs, the transportation component has effectively destroyed the profitability of export supplies. Thermal coal exports have become loss-making even on the most profitable route – shipments to China via Far Eastern ports – not to mention shipments via Northwestern and Southern ports, where a sustained negative margin has been observed for a considerable time.
An analysis of tariff dynamics shows their accelerated growth. From 2020 to 2024, the rail freight tariff for coal supplies from Kuzbass, Khakassia and the Novosibirsk region to seaports has already increased by almost 100% (4 times higher than the accumulated inflation over the period).
An additional burden was placed on exporters following a 13.8% tariff indexation in December 2024 and the introduction of a targeted 2% surcharge from January 2025. A significant blow was the abolition by Russian Railways (RZD) in 2022 the lowering coefficients to coal rail tariffs (for long-distance and steam coal). These benefits were revoked based on the short-term context of high export prices at the time but were never reinstated, despite the subsequent multiple collapse in global indices.
RZD explained such a significant surge in the railroad tariff by the need to ensure investments in the development of railway infrastructure in the eastern direction. Nevertheless, the total volumes of shipments of all cargoes to the East are still considerably behind the original plans, while eastbound coal deliveries from Kuzbass, Khakassia and the Novosibirsk Region in 2022-2023 were even lower than in 2019-2020.
According to industry estimates, the total overpayment by coal companies on rail tariffs from 2022–2024 exceeded 2.4 billion USD.
Source: CCA Analysis
