Russian coal production in Kuzbass down 3.9% in 2025
January 26, 2026
Global thermal coal prices continued to strengthen over the past week: indices in Europe rose; in China, coal corrected downwards; in Australia, quotations for both thermal and metallurgical material strengthened notably.
Over the past week, European thermal coal indices on the spot market firmed above 102 USD/t (the highest level since August 2025) amid colder weather, a sharp rise in gas prices, and cheaper CO2 emission allowances.
Additional support for quotations came from shrinking coal stocks at ARA terminals, as well as the de-escalation of a trade war between the US and the EU over Greenland, following Trump’s statements that extra 10% tariffs would not be imposed.
Gas quotations on the TTF hub strengthened to 478.52 USD/1,000 m3 (+91.29 USD/1,000 m3 w-o-w) – the highest level since June 2025 – as a result of forecasts for a sharp cold snap, declining storage levels, and heightened geopolitical tensions. European UGS inventories fell by 4 percentage points to 49%. Coal stocks at ARA terminals decreased to 3.44 mio t (-0.21 mio t or -6% w-o-w).
South African High-CV 6,000 rose to 92.5 USD/t, supported by gains on the European market and increased activity from Indian buyers.
Severe flooding forced Mozambique’s state railway operator CFM to close the cross-border railway line used for export shipments of thermal coal from South Africa. The rail network was placed on a red alert level due to torrential rains, which damaged the Ressano Garcia line towards the port of Maputo.
Repair work began on January 18 and is expected to be completed by January 22. However, coal transportation to the South African export terminal RBCT continues.
In China, spot prices for 5,500 NAR coal at the port of Qinhuangdao corrected downwards to 100 USD/t after rising the previous week. Despite some increase in power demand and significant cooling in some regions of the country, fundamental supply and demand factors have deteriorated.
Spot market demand remained weak because of high inventories held by end-users at ports and power plants. Energy companies are focused on consuming coal under long-term contracts, showing little interest in spot purchases as temperatures are expected to rise soon.
Weiqiao Power reduced procurement prices for three power plants, and some market participants expect Shenhua to lower prices for third-party suppliers. Meanwhile, suppliers resisted deeper price cuts, anticipating that high consumption will deplete stocks and that pre-holiday restocking purchases will provide some price support.
Stocks at 9 major ports fell to 27.07 mio t (-0.56 mio t w-o-w), while inventories at 6 major coastal thermal power plants remained at 13.33 mio t (flat w-o-w).
Indonesian 5,900 GAR climbed to 82 USD/t, while 4,200 GAR increased to 47 USD/t. Indonesian material became more expensive because of logistical constraints and steady demand, although the demand from China decreased last week.
Stormy weather continues to hamper transshipment activities in South Kalimantan, forcing suppliers to temporarily suspend offering new cargoes.
Consequently, a supply shortfall from Indonesia has reduced trading activity in the market, limiting the potential for further price gains. By some estimates, contracted volumes have dropped by 10–15%. Meanwhile, there is steady demand for spot shipments from markets like Malaysia, Thailand, and South Korea, but supply uncertainty is hindering the conclusion of new deals.
It is assumed that a growing number of coal producers are preparing to cut extraction to align with plans to reduce output to 600–650 mio t this year (compared with 790 mio t in 2025).
Australian High-CV 6,000 exceeded 111 USD/t, supported by Asian demand and limited supply due to Cyclone Koji.
Forecast cooling in South Korea and other Northeast Asian countries over the next one to two weeks is also supporting spot prices for high-CV thermal coal.
Australia’s HCC metallurgical coal index continued its rise to 239 USD/t, as demand exceeds supply following floods in Australia caused by heavy rains.
Disruptions from torrential rains since late December have affected a number of mines in the Bowen Basin, as well as related rail and port infrastructure. At least four producers have declared force majeure.
Supply recovery could take from one to four weeks, but a new cyclone forecast for January 18 could slow this process.
Meanwhile, sellers with available February cargoes are weighing the optimal timing for sales to maximize gains from the current situation.
Source: CCA Analysis
