In September 2025, Russian coal supplies to China dropped to 6.8 mio t (-1.5 mio t or -18.1% vs. Sep 2024), according to General Administration of Customs of China (GACC).
In January–September 2025, Chinese coal imports from Russia dipped to 66.3 mio t (-5.1 mio t or -7.1% vs. Jan–Sep 2024).
The decrease in Russian coal supplies resulted from serious logistical issues, high railway tariffs, international sanctions and ruble appreciation. Given depressed global prices, these factors are forcing most producers to export coal at zero or negative margins, that will likely lead to further production and supplies cuts in the near term.
In September 2025, China’s coal imports reached a nine-month high as stronger domestic prices fueled demand for imported coal. However, supply volumes remained below last year’s level, amounting to 46.0 mio t (-1.6 mio t or -3.4% vs. Sep 2024).
China’s total coal imports in Jan-Sep 2025 decreased to 346.1 mio t (-43.1 mio t or -11.1% y-o-y).
Russia remains China’s second-largest coal supplier after Indonesia, followed by Mongolia and Australia.
In Jan-Sep 2025, Indonesia, China’s top coal provider, reduced exports to 143.2 mio t (-25.3 mio t or -15.0% y-o-y).
Mongolia managed to ramp up its shipments to 61.9 mio t (+1.3 mio t or +2.1% y-o-y), while Australian deliveries went down to 55.2 mio t (-2.6 mio t or -4.5% y-o-y).
Market share shifts among major suppliers (Jan-Sep 2025 vs. Jan-Sep 2024):
· Indonesia: 41.4% (-1.9 p. p.);
· Russia: 19.2% (+0.9 p.p.);
· Mongolia: 17.9% (+2.3 p.p.);
· Australia: 15.9% (+1.0 p.p.).
In September 2025 China’s domestic coal production fell to 412.0 mio t (-1.8% y-o-y). Nevertheless, the output for 9 months of 2025 remained 2% higher y-o-y.
Despite strong demand, Russian coal exports to China continue to decline due to systemic issues and crisis in the coal industry, potentially leading to Russia’s shrinking market share and growing competitive pressure from other suppliers.
Source: CCA Analysis
