Coal prices continued to rise: quotations in Europe firmed; coal in China became more expensive; Australia maintained an upward trend for both thermal and metallurgical material.
European thermal coal indices climbed to 96 USD/t amid growing demand and anticipated colder weather. In Northern Europe, power stations increased spot purchases to replenish stocks ahead of the heating season and because of expectations for a colder winter.
Northwestern Europe saw a drop in wind generation, which is also boosting demand for thermal coal. High freight rates from the USA and Colombia to Europe are also supporting quotations. EUA CO2 contracts became slightly cheaper, that enhanced coal’s attractiveness for power generation.
Gas quotations on the TTF hub corrected downward to 379.78 USD/1,000 m³ (-0.73 USD/1,000 m³ w-o-w). EU gas storage inventories remained at 83%. Coal stocks at ARA terminals went up over the week to 3.67 mio t (+0.11 mio t or +3%).
South African High-CV 6,000 advanced to 83-84 USD/t, following the strengthening of prices in Europe. Support also came from the demand from South Korea, as South African coal became more competitive on account of its price.
Demand from Pakistan could also rise because of the halt in trade with Afghanistan caused by the armed conflict. Stocks at the RBCT terminal rose over the week to 3.75 mio t (+0.15 mio t).
Sasol boosted its production by 18% to 7.2 mio t in July-September, owing to the commissioning of a new coal preparation facility. Despite the increase, the entire volume remains for internal use, as the company halted external sales, directing coal for processing, which reduces spot supply and supports export prices.
Meanwhile, South Africa’s railway transportation metrics continue to improve: the volume of coal deliveries to Richards Bay port last week rose to 1.4 mio t. Annualized, this figure equates to 68 mio t, which exceeds the result for the 2025 financial year (57.6 mio t) and is significantly higher than the record low of the 2024 financial year (48.5 mio t).
In China, spot prices for 5,500 NAR coal at the port of Qinhuangdao gained 2.14 USD/t to 109 USD/t. The Chinese market maintains its upward trend on account of constrained supply, rising demand, and the approaching winter.
A sharp temperature drop of 4–8°C (to –10°C in some areas) is expected from November 07, which will increase electricity and thermal coal consumption. Some traders started raising prices, counting on demand growth.
Furthermore, major power plants intentionally slowed the replenishment of winter stocks to put pressure on the spot market and strengthen their position in annual contract negotiations, which may start in November-December.
Furthermore, an increase in railway tariffs in China last week curtailed activity on the coal market. As a result, coal shipments to ports slowed, limiting the growth of port inventories.
According to a forecast by China Coal, coal demand will see moderate growth in 2026, while supply will remain constrained, pushing power plants to transition from spot deals to long-term contracts.
Inventories at the 9 largest ports decreased to 23.75 mio t (-0.44 mio t w-o-w).
Indonesian 5,900 GAR moved up to 78 USD/t, while the price of 4,200 GAR edged slightly higher above 45 USD/t.
The Indonesian market is supported by adverse weather conditions, limited spot supply, rising freight rates, and sustained import demand in Asian countries.
Heavy rains in Kalimantan and Sumatra hampered coal deliveries from mines/open-pit mines to ports, especially on the Mahakam and Barito rivers. Moreover, traders are reluctant to offer discounts, expecting a rise in demand from China after the cold snap.
Australian High-CV 6,000 exceeded 106 USD/t, continuing its recovery, resulting from limited supply, as well as stable demand from Northeast Asian countries. Ahead of winter, power utilities in Japan and South Korea are securing cargoes for Q4 to avoid disruptions during the rainy season. Activity from India was moderate, but higher interest in 5,500 material was seen due to rising prices in Indonesia.
Maintenance on the Hunter Valley railway line to Newcastle Port and rainfall reduced coal flows to export terminals by approximately 10–15% of normal levels. As a result, the number of spot shipments available at the end of October was minimal.
Australia’s HCC metallurgical coal index rose to 196 USD/t. Quotations stopped declining and are consolidating on the back of limited supply and reviving demand in Asia. Indian companies returned to the market, seeking HCC and PCI material.
Limited volumes of Low-Vol PCI from Curragh and Middlemount are supporting the market.
Loading activity at Hay Point and Dalrymple Bay ports is gradually normalizing, but producers are maintaining a low production pace to avoid creating a supply surplus and to support prices.
Source: CCA Analysis
