Global coal prices showed mixed regional dynamics last week, with weaker European benchmarks offset by firmer prices across China, Indonesia and Australia amid weather, logistics and supply disruptions.
Broadly positive dynamics prevailed in the coal market: prices in Europe decreased; in China, coal became more expensive; in Australia, quotations for both thermal and metallurgical material advanced.
Over the past week, European thermal coal indices on the spot market adjusted below 98 USD/t. Price pressure stemmed from a significant rise in coal stocks at ARA terminals and higher CO2 emission allowance prices. Meanwhile, gas and electricity prices moved upwards on the back of issues with nuclear generation in France.
Gas quotations on the TTF hub firmed to 387.23 USD/1,000 m3 (+45.33 USD/1,000 m3 w-o-w) following forecasts for a sharp cold snap, declining storage levels, and heightened geopolitical concerns around LNG supplies. European UGS inventories fell by 8 percentage points to 53%. Coal stocks at ARA terminals increased to 3.65 mio t (+0.37 mio t or +11% w-o-w).
South African High-CV 6,000 climbed to 90 USD/t, supported by rising activity on the spot market and from Indian buyers. A sharp increase in sponge iron prices in India also provided support to quotations, boosting expectations for higher demand for South African coal.
Coal exports through the Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) grew by 10% in 2025 to 57.07 mio t (+5.07 mio t y-o-y). India became the largest export market with a volume of just over 28.00 mio t (+3.00 mio t y-o-y). Coal exports to Europe amounted to just under 5.55 mio t.
The improvement in RBCT’s throughput performance is attributed to increased capacity on Transnet’s rail network, which is gradually recovering after hitting a 30-year low of around 48 mio t in 2023.
In China, spot prices for 5,500 NAR coal at the port of Qinhuangdao rose above 101.85 USD/t. Traders maintained a moderately optimistic sentiment, believing that end-users may return to the market to replenish stocks because of anticipated new cold waves and the approaching Lunar New Year.
Overall, market participants do not expect a significant drop in FOB prices, considering the correction that already occurred last month and the fact that the cost of supply mostly exceeds current offering price levels.
Temperature forecasts of 4-6°C above seasonal norms in central, eastern, and southern China in the coming days worsened coal consumption prospects, although a cold snap between January 17 and 20 is expected to lower temperatures by 4-8°C across the country.
Stocks at 9 major ports grew to 27.63 mio t (+0.80 mio t w-o-w), while inventories at 6 major coastal thermal power plants decreased to 13.32 mio t (-0.10 mio t w-o-w).
The Indonesian 5,900 GAR index advanced above 81 USD/t, while the price of 4,200 GAR increased to 46.5 USD/t. Indonesian coal became more expensive because of strengthening prices in the Chinese market and logistical challenges from monsoon rains, which are creating problems for producers in Kalimantan.
Furthermore, mining companies in South Sumatra continue to face restrictions on transporting coal via the Lalan River and by truck on public roads. Companies are forced to seek exemptions from the coal transport ban, which was introduced effective January 1, 2026, by a governor’s instruction that threatens production of over 6 mio t/month and affects dozens of companies, accounting for about 65% of regional output.
Local authorities have formed a working group to assess the readiness of specialized coal infrastructure and the possibility of granting exemptions to individual producers. The industry hopes the exemption will take effect by February 1 and help mitigate logistics disruptions.
Meanwhile, uncertainty dominated trading sentiment because of conflicting messages from the Indonesian government regarding coal production this year and the upcoming export duty, making it difficult for producers to set contract prices.
Australian High-CV 6,000 rose above 109 USD/t, supported by Asian demand and limited supply, resulting from shipment stoppages at Queensland state ports due to adverse weather caused by Cyclone Koji, which may last until January 16. However, medium-term price prospects look negative, as indicated by a flat forward curve.
Australia’s HCC metallurgical coal index jumped above 230 USD/t, as demand exceeds supply, following floods in Australia caused by heavy rains. Buyers report that January cargoes are already facing shipment delays. Fitzroy, an HCC coal supplier, and Curragh Mammoth, a PCI supplier, have already declared force majeure, and several other Australian companies are expected to do the same.
Source: CCA Analysis
