Japan coal demand is expected to remain resilient through the next decade, with the latest electricity supply projections indicating coal-fired power could still account for roughly one quarter of Japan’s electricity generation mix in FY2030 despite ongoing decarbonisation efforts.
Current projections indicate coal-fired power could still account for around 25.2% of electricity generation in FY2030 and 22.5% in FY2035, highlighting the slower-than-expected pace of coal phase-outs across the country.
The updated projections also show LNG-fired generation remaining elevated, accounting for more than 30% of the generation mix in both FY2030 and FY2035. Combined, coal and LNG are expected to continue dominating Japan’s electricity system despite rapid renewable energy expansion.
Coal capacity reductions meanwhile remain relatively limited. The figures show that only around 10% of existing coal-fired capacity is currently scheduled for retirement by FY2035, with approximately 45.58 GW of coal-fired generating capacity still expected to remain operational.
Energy security concerns linked to instability in Middle East oil and LNG markets are also reinforcing the role of thermal generation within Japan’s energy strategy. Growing concerns over LNG supply security amid geopolitical tensions are supporting calls to maintain reliable coal-fired generation capacity.
At the same time, renewable energy additions are continuing to accelerate, particularly in solar and wind. However, the pace of renewable deployment alone does not yet appear sufficient to fully displace Japan’s reliance on thermal generation over the next decade.
Source: Japan Coal
