Russian coal producers are facing worsening pressure as another RZD tariff hike from 2027 threatens to deepen the sector’s financial strain.
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry has released its latest socio-economic forecast, which includes another increase in rail freight tariffs. From January 01, 2027, rates are set to rise by 8.3%. Further hikes are penciled in for subsequent years: 6.0% in 2028 and 4.9% in 2029.
For coal miners, this is another blow to an already dire shipping economics. A 10% tariff increase for 2026 was announced back in December 2025. On top of that, RZD made permanent its 10% surcharge for empty railcars runs, originally introduced as a temporary measure in January 2025. Furthermore, since March 01, 2026, coal shippers have been paying an additional 1% levy.
All these increases come as RZD abandons the “inflation minus 0.1%” principle. In 2025, tariffs rose 13.8%, while official inflation stood at just 5.6%. For coal exporters, this is critical as rail freight accounts for 60-70% of their delivered price.
At the same time, state support measures are expiring. Some companies are losing deferrals on mineral extraction tax (MET) and social security contributions. A stronger ruble adds to the pressure, and high lending rates continue to weigh on the industry.
The sector’s financials are deteriorating fast. In January-February 2026, coal companies’ losses more than doubled year-on-year, according to preliminary data. The share of unprofitable firms rose to 59% from 57%. Loss-making enterprises currently number 62, of which 20 have already halted production, while the rest are teetering on the edge.
Debt burden by the end of 2025 reached 18 billion USD (+5.1 billion USD or +40% y-o-y). In this regard, the Ministry of Energy forecasts that losses of Russian coal enterprises will rise to 7 billion USD in 2026, which is 27% above the 2025 level.
All this will inevitably cut into export volumes. Producers in Kuzbass, Russia’s main coal region, will be hit hardest. Pressure on Far Eastern suppliers will be less severe due to their proximity to Asia-Pacific buyers. But the broader trend is clear: without a shift in macroeconomic policy and tariff conditions, Kuzbass will keep reducing output, tightening global supply of high-quality coal.
Source: CCA
