The Coal Hub
No Result
View All Result
  • Login
  • Premium Content
    • All
    • Climate & Technology
    • Coal Fired Generation
    • Coal Market Outlook
    • Coal Regions
    • Coal Trade
    • Economic Impact
    • Met / Coking Coal
    • Others
  • Blog
  • Events
  • Industry Links
    • Coal Consultants
    • Coal Industry Association
    • Coal Industry News
    • Coal Price & Market Information
    • Government Organisation
    • Think Tank
    • Coal Company
  • Newsletter
  • Videos
  • Other Hubs
    • EUROPEAN GAS HUB
    • GLOBAL LNG HUB
    • GLOBAL MARITIME HUB
  • Subscribe
  • My account
  • Login
SUBSCRIBE
  • Premium Content
    • All
    • Climate & Technology
    • Coal Fired Generation
    • Coal Market Outlook
    • Coal Regions
    • Coal Trade
    • Economic Impact
    • Met / Coking Coal
    • Others
  • Blog
  • Events
  • Industry Links
    • Coal Consultants
    • Coal Industry Association
    • Coal Industry News
    • Coal Price & Market Information
    • Government Organisation
    • Think Tank
    • Coal Company
  • Newsletter
  • Videos
  • Other Hubs
    • EUROPEAN GAS HUB
    • GLOBAL LNG HUB
    • GLOBAL MARITIME HUB
  • Subscribe
  • My account
  • Login
The Coal Hub
No Result
View All Result
Home Coal Prices

European coal prices could plummet 8% in November

Editor by Editor
2 years ago
min read2 min
Coal Price Spikes
Share on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on Linkedin

Atlantic basin coal prices could drop as much as 8% over the coming month amid the prospect of increased supply and reduced generation demand due to widespread Covid-19 lockdowns in western Europe, analysts told Montel this week.

RELATED POSTS

StableCoin

Russia considers launching stablecoins to settle export supply payments

4 days ago
World-coal-market

World coal market: brief overview

4 days ago
Pacific coal prices retain record premium over Europe

Pacific coal prices retain record premium over Europe

6 days ago

The front-quarter API 2 contract settled last at a five-week low of USD 54.20/t, down 6.4% from the end of last month, while the front year slid 7.7% to USD 55.70/t, on Ice Futures.

The latter contract on Thursday reached its lowest level since 8 September of USD 55.55/t.

“One key issue in November will certainly be if Colombian supply returns to the market,” said a coal analyst with an energy firm.

Strike action at Colombia’s key Cerrejon complex has already lasted for two months, while another two producers, Prodeco and Colombian Natural Resources, have suspended operations since May and late July, respectively, amid poor market conditions.

Workers in South Africa have also threatened widespread strike action over ongoing wage disputes with several mining companies.

Colombian question

“If both Cerrejon and Prodeco restart production, that could have a bearish impact on December and front-quarter] prices,” the analyst said.

“If not, we continue to need Russian supplies at slightly higher costs, especially if the winter brings an early cold spell and gas prices rise further.”

Forecaster SMHI said temperatures across western Europe would likely average 1-3C below seasonal norms for much of November.

“The second important topic is of course Covid-19,” the analyst said, noting more stringent efforts to stem the spread of the virus, through new restrictions and lockdowns, could lead to reduced power – and therefore fossil fuel – demand this winter.

But for the time being, improved coal-fired generation margins could see some upturn in utility demand for coal and therefore underpin prices.

The November clean dark spread – the profit margin for burning coal to produce power – for a German power plant of 38% efficiency was last seen at EUR -1.50/MWh, close to the equivalent gas-fired generation margin, according to Montel data.

“Currently, the darks are over the sparks in Germany during the balance of the year and front quarter, so winter temperatures and wind speed will be key to see if coal can take advantage of this margin in the near term, at least to erode the stocks,” said an analyst with a coal producer.

“Gas crucial”

For this reason, gas price moves would also be a crucial driver for the coal market, he added.

“If the winter turns out to be mild and gas comes down, it could drag down coal.”

A coal strategist with a European utility agreed there were many uncertainties facing the market in November.

“I still see demand increasing month on month despite the lockdowns and supply out of Colombia is still limited,” he said, adding European stock levels would therefore erode further.

Inventories at Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp (ARA) dry bulk terminals were already seen in late October at around two-year lows of 5.3m tonnes.

From a technical viewpoint, the front-year API 2 contract could decline some further 8% in November, said Tom Hovik, Montel’s head of technical analysis.

“The market has become a bit toppish over the last few months,” he said, adding there was therefore a likelihood of prices retreating to USD 51-53/t at some point over the coming month.

For a move up to the USD 65-70/t area, the USD 61.40/t resistance level would have to be broken, he said.

Source: Montel

Follow on Twitter:

Tweets by "montelnews"
Tags: API coal contractCerrejoncoal pricesEuropean coalMontelmontelnewsRussian coal
Editor

Editor

Related Posts

StableCoin
Coal Demand

Russia considers launching stablecoins to settle export supply payments

4 days ago
World-coal-market
Coal Demand

World coal market: brief overview

4 days ago
Pacific coal prices retain record premium over Europe
Coal Prices

Pacific coal prices retain record premium over Europe

6 days ago
Global coal consumption: not dead (yet)?
Coal Demand

Global coal consumption: not dead (yet)?

7 days ago
Coal-production-in-Kuzbass
Coal Demand

Coal production in Kuzbass down 8% in 2022

2 weeks ago
World-coal-market
Coal Demand

World coal market: brief overview

2 weeks ago

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

No Result
View All Result

Trending Posts

StableCoin

Russia considers launching stablecoins to settle export supply payments

February 3, 2023
Pacific coal prices retain record premium over Europe

Pacific coal prices retain record premium over Europe

February 2, 2023
Coal-production-in-Kuzbass

Coal production in Kuzbass down 8% in 2022

February 1, 2023

Recent Post

StableCoin

Russia considers launching stablecoins to settle export supply payments

February 3, 2023
World-coal-market

World coal market: brief overview

February 3, 2023
Pacific coal prices retain record premium over Europe

Pacific coal prices retain record premium over Europe

February 2, 2023
Global coal consumption: not dead (yet)?

Global coal consumption: not dead (yet)?

February 1, 2023
Coal-production-in-Kuzbass

Coal production in Kuzbass down 8% in 2022

February 1, 2023
World-coal-market

World coal market: brief overview

January 27, 2023

The Coal Hub is an online platform for sharing analysis and information about the global coal market  more info

Categories

  • Coal Market Outlook
  • Coal Trade
  • Met / Coking Coal
  • Coal Fired Generation
  • Coal Regions
  • Climate & Technology
  • Economic Impact

Recent Posts

Russia considers launching stablecoins to settle export supply payments

World coal market: brief overview

Pacific coal prices retain record premium over Europe

Energise your Friday!

Sign up to receive our weekly newsletter (each Friday) with new coal market reports, presentations & analysis.

By signing up, I agree to our TOS and Privacy Policy.

© 2020 TheCoalHub | All Rights Reserved

No Result
View All Result
  • Premium Content
    • All
    • Climate & Technology
    • Coal Fired Generation
    • Coal Market Outlook
    • Coal Regions
    • Coal Trade
    • Economic Impact
    • Met / Coking Coal
    • Others
  • Blog
  • Events
  • Industry Links
    • Coal Consultants
    • Coal Industry Association
    • Coal Industry News
    • Coal Price & Market Information
    • Government Organisation
    • Think Tank
    • Coal Company
  • Newsletter
  • Videos
  • Other Hubs
    • EUROPEAN GAS HUB
    • GLOBAL LNG HUB
    • GLOBAL MARITIME HUB
  • Subscribe
  • My account
  • Login

© 2020 TheCoalHub | All Rights Reserved

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Create New Account!

Fill the forms bellow to register

All fields are required. Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
We use cookies on our website to give you the most relevant experience by remembering your preferences and repeat visits. By clicking “Accept”, you consent to the use of ALL the cookies.
Cookie settingsACCEPT
Manage consent

Privacy Overview

This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience.
Necessary
Always Enabled
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website. These cookies do not store any personal information.
Non-necessary
Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website.
SAVE & ACCEPT

Energise your Friday!

Interested in coal markets? Do you want our free email each FRIDAY with at least 3 new COAL reports & presentations?

Are you sure want to unlock this post?
Unlock left : 0
Are you sure want to cancel subscription?