World coal market: brief overview

Over the past week, European thermal coal indices resumed dropping below 96 USD/t under pressure from declining gas prices and the off-season, when power consumption declines and renewable generation goes up.

French company EDF announced plans to wind down the country’s last coal-fired power plant (1.2 GW) by the end of March 2027.

Gas quotes at the TTF hub fell to 424.87 USD/1,000 m³ (-2.36 USD/1,000 m³ w-o-w), on increased fuel injection into European underground gas storage (UGS) and lower withdrawals, amid record LNG imports. Europe’s UGS facilities are currently at almost 47% of the full capacity. Coal stocks at ARA terminals remained flat at 3.68 mio t.

South African High-CV 6,000 corrected below 89 USD/t, following the European market. Prices were also impacted by weaker demand from consumers in India, where inventories of imported coal rose 7% over the week on the back of lower temperatures and increased renewable generation. Negotiations between the United National Transport Union (UNTU) and rail operator Transnet were extended to June 10 to enable the authorities to settle the dispute and avoid the strike.

South African authorities placed the coal industry on the list of critical for the country’s economy, creating special conditions for foreign investment, while U.S. representatives expressed interest on the issue.

In China, spot prices for 5,500 NAR coal at the port of Qinhuangdao stood at 86 USD/t. The decline in coal quotations slowed down due to lower inventories and higher consumption by power plants. Fundamentals improved, following the easing of the trade war as the US Court of International Trade ruled that President Donald Trump overstepped his authority and declared the duties, he imposed, illegal.

The National Bureau of Statistics reported that profits of coal companies in China totaled 14.3 billion USD in January-April 2025, falling 49% vs. the same period last year.

Nevertheless, the level of Chinese stockpiles remains quite high, giving buyers a more favorable position in negotiations on import supplies. Inventories at the 9 largest ports decreased to 31.36 mio t (-0.76 mio t w-o-w), while coal stocks at the 6 largest coastal TPPs totaled 14.10 mio t (-0.36 mio t). The consumption climbed to 780 kt/day from 755 kt/day a week earlier.

Indonesian 5,900 GAR kept sinking to 77 USD/t, while the price of 4,200 GAR sagged to 45 USD/t.
Indonesian coal indices moved lower despite the limited production and transportation caused by unfavorable weather conditions. Indonesian coal tenders to Chinese power companies closed below expectations, underscoring the negative sentiment, which is also linked to high inventories in consumers’ warehouses.

China significantly reduced Indonesian coal imports in April to 14.3. mio t (-20% to March 2025 and April 2024). Some buyers of medium- and high-CV material in India and South Korea are looking to switch to Russian material.

Australian High-CV 6,000 rose above 105 USD/t after Hunter Valley producer declared force majeure following continuous flooding, which is affecting rail shipments to Newcastle port.

Australia’s HCC metallurgical coal index edged up to 196 USD/t due to limited spot availability from Australia and delays in shipments, related to adverse weather conditions in the states of New South Wales and Queensland.

Meanwhile, Indian coke producers are taking a wait-and-see attitude as they expect the authorities to decide on coking coal import quotas, which expire on June 30.

Source: CCA Analysis

World coal market: brief overview

China consumes almost 400 mt of coal to produce liquid fuels