Russian coal exports face risk as RZD pushes ship-or-pay principle
December 16, 2025
Transshipment of Kazakh coal through Russian ports in January-October 2025 increased to 9.6 mio t (+2.5 mio t or +34% y-o-y).
The main growth was seen in the Azov-Black Sea basin ports, which handled 3.4 mio t (+1.5 mio t or +83% y-o-y). Transit via Baltic ports rose to 6.2 mio t (+0.9 mio t or +18% y-o-y).
The growth stems from agreements reached between Russian Railways (RZD) and Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ) in April 2025 to increase coal supplies to Russian ports. A crucial role was played by the EU’s decision in July to exempt transactions with certain Russian ports from sanctions for the purpose of transiting Kazakh coal.
Meanwhile, the increase in transit of Kazakh material is occurring on the back of a crisis in the Russian coal industry and lower Russian coal supplies in the northwestern direction. The promised 12.8% discount on RZD’s rail freight tariffs to Northwestern and Southern ports remains unavailable. Furthermore, this route remains unprofitable for Russian coal exporters, facing record losses amid rising transport tariffs, sanctions, and low coal prices.
Total coal transshipment (both Kazakh and Russian) in Russian Northwestern ports dropped to 35.3 mio t (-3.0 mio t or -7.8% y-o-y).
Source: CCA Analysis
