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The outlook for China’s fossil fuel consumption

This report examines the outlook for China’s fossil fuel consumption under the energy transition and its geopolitical implications. Coal consumption in China is set to fall and, given limited import dependence, coal will become increasingly immaterial from a geopolitical perspective. That said, the speed with which China will phase out coal is unclear, and with abundant local reserves, coal offers China flexibility in its energy supplies and a significant hedge against energy insecurity, even as its use undermines emission reduction targets.

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