In January-July 2025, Russian coal exports to China declined to 51.5 mio t (-2.9 mio t or -5.3% vs. 7 months of 2024), according to China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC).
The decrease in Russian coal supplies resulted from serious logistical issues, high railway tariffs, international sanctions and ruble appreciation. Given depressed global prices, these factors are forcing most producers to export coal at zero or negative margins, that will likely lead to further production and supplies cuts in the near term.
China’s total coal imports in Jan-Jul 2025 reached 257.4 mio t (-38.4 mio t or -13% y-o-y). In July 2025, imports dropped to 35.6 mio t (-23% vs. July 2024).
Russia remains China’s second-largest coal supplier after Indonesia, followed by Mongolia and Australia.
In Jan-Jul 2025, Indonesia, China’s top coal provider, reduced exports to 104.2 mio t (-22.7 mio t or -18% y-o-y). Mongolia and Australia also decreased supplies to 44.2 mio t (-2.2 mio t or -5%) and 42.2 mio t (-1.6 mio t or -4%) respectively.
Market share shifts among major suppliers (Jan-Jul 2025 vs. Jan-Jul 2024):
· Indonesia: 40.5% (-2.4 p. p.);
· Russia: 20.0% (+1.6 p.p.);
· Mongolia: 17.2% (+1.5 p.p.);
· Australia: 16.4% (+1.6 p.p.).
China’s domestic coal production increased to 2.8 billion t (+3.8% y-o-y) in January-July 2025, reducing import volumes.
Nevertheless, on July 20, 2025, Chinese authorities began inspections at coal mines across eight provinces aimed at curbing overproduction and limiting output growth. These measures are seen as potentially tightening coal supply and pushing up domestic prices, which could subsequently affect global prices.
Despite strong demand, Russian coal exports to China continue to decline due to systemic issues and crisis in the coal industry, potentially leading to Russia’s shrinking market share and growing competitive pressure from other suppliers.
Source: CCA Analysis
