European thermal coal indices continued their rally last week, exceeding 100 USD/t. TTF gas prices rose to 26.2 EUR/MWh (+0.8 EUR/MWh to May 26, 2021). EU carbon prices reached 51.4 EUR/t (-1.4 EUR/t to May 26, 2021). Wind output in the EU countries dipped to 834 GWh (-386 GWh to May 26, 2021), providing additional support to coal quotes. ARA coal stocks amounted to 5.0 mio t (+0.4 mio t to May 26, 2021).
On May 29, 2021, Colombian coal producer Cerrejon announced the gradual resumption of mining operations after lifting the blockade on the railway, connecting coal-mining regions of Colombia and the port of Bolivar.
Stronger electricity demand during summer period in the Asia-Pacific countries boosted prices of South African material over 110 USD/t.
Last week, the domestic market of China saw an increase in coal prices due to high demand for electricity amid hot weather. As of June 02, 2021, the prices for 5500 kcal/kg NAR coal in the port of Qinhuangdao surged over 140 USD/t.
The growing demand from Japan and South Korea had a positive impact on the Australian coal indices over 120 USD/t. Taiwan also ramped up its consumption of Australian coal due to hot weather and power outages.
Ahead of the summer season, Japan will increase its electricity generation from May 31 till June 6. It is expected that the generation capacity of thermal power plants in Japan will increase by 4 132 MW, of which 650 MW will account for coal-fired power capacities.
On May 30, 2021, the Japanese company Tohuku Electric resumed power generation at the Haramachi 1 coal-fired power plant, which was suspended after the earthquake in February 2021.
On May 29, 2021, a fire at the Shin-Kori 4 nuclear power plant with a capacity of 1.4 GW led to the shutdown of the nuclear power plant, boosting the volume of imported coal burning.
Despite the correction of quotes, strong demand from China and India goes on keeping the prices of Indonesian 5900 GAR material above 96 USD/t.
Indonesia plans to reduce the share of coal in the country’s energy mix to 30% by 2025 and double the share of renewables from 11.2 % in 2020 to 23% by 2025. The country also plans to suspend the construction of new coal-fired power plants in order to reduce CO2 emissions. This measure may limit coal consumption on the Indonesian domestic market in the long-term period.
Surge in steel prices had a positive impact on the demand of metallurgical plants in the Asia-Pacific region for coking coal from Australia, increasing prices over 160 USD/t.
Source: CAA Analytics
