The Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) opposed the return of lowering coefficients to the tariffs of Russian Railways (RZD) for coal export transportation, threatening to reduce Russian exports by 30-40 mio t in 2024.
In April this year, the Ministry of Energy proposed resuming the application of the lowering coefficients of 0.4 for distance and 0.895 for export shipments of steam coal, that were abolished in June 2022. In addition, it was proposed to introduce discounts of 12.8% for shipments to northwestern and southern ports in order to support Russian coal industry amid low global prices, growing transportation costs and rising production costs.
Moreover, under the current conditions in the south and northwest directions with the existing railway tariffs and transshipment rates in ports, the supplies turned out to be loss-making, while the application of lowering coefficients would help to increase transportation volumes and unload the Eastern range, where the number of priority cargoes increased with coal being de-prioritized.
RZD also opposes the return of incentives and lowering coefficients, and is not ready to provide discounts on coal transportation to the northwest and south at the rate of 12.8% without compensation for coal transportation eastwards.
Additional pressure on Russian companies producing steam coal in 2Q 2024 will be exerted by the deflator coefficient to the mineral extraction tax rate, raised to 0.906, or by 8% q-o-q, although the government had no plans to increase the tax burden on the industry.
Meanwhile, profits of Russian coal companies (adjusted for losses) in January-February 2024 collapsed 5.3-fold from 1.2 bln USD to 0.2 bln USD (-1.0 bln USD y-o-y)., and the share of loss-making enterprises increased from 39% to 46%.
In January-April 2024, Russian coal exports fell to 62.3 mio t (-8.6 mio t or -12.1% y-o-y) due to unfavorable conditions on the international market, as well as increased costs and sanctions pressure, which would lead to further reduction of Russian coal supplies.
Source: CAA
