Global coal trade looks to be at a turning point

The Signal Group’s September update says global coal trade is moving from expansion to contraction with seaborne volumes expected to fall in 2025 and again in 2026, driven by flat demand and abundant supply.

China’s H1-2025 coal burn dipped as renewables rose; India’s import mix is changing amid surging domestic output and coking-coal needs; and Indonesia’s policy reversals on the HBA benchmark highlight pricing frictions with key buyers.

These shifts are likely set to re-route cargoes and affect bulk vessel employment.

Key takeaways from the article:

• Two-year decline ahead: Signal flags a drop in global seaborne coal trade in 2025 with another decline in 2026—a notable inflection for freight and trade lanes.
• China cools, India pivots: China’s coal demand eased in H1-2025; India expands domestic output while steel drives coking coal imports and diversifies suppliers (Russia, Australia).
• Indonesia under the microscope: The short-lived requirement to use HBA as a minimum sale price (rescinded in Aug-2025) exposed pricing tensions with Chinese buyers.
• Freight implications: Less trade + shifting routes = changing Supramax/Panamax employment and tonne-mile patterns.

Read the full article at The Signal Group