No significant growth in Russian coal exports is expected in the coming years. According to our forecasts, Russian coal exports will decline to 194 mio t (-1 mio t) in 2025.
This is caused by several factors: weak market conditions on the global coal market, the expected rise in Russian railway freight tariffs at the end of 2025 and strong ruble. All those issues hurt Russian coal suppliers’ profits and limit exports. If, for some reasons, these factors are reversed in Q4 in a more favourable way for Russian coal exports, coal shipments from Russia to the global market won’t surpass 200 mio t in 2025.
The outlook for 2026 is even more unclear because of the market uncertainty. Furthermore, it remains unknown whether an agreement will be reached between Russian Railways (RZD) and the Kemerovo region on the volume of coal exports from Kuzbass eastwards in 2026. In 2025, the quota for coal exports from Kuzbass to the East was 54.1 mio t, which was a good support for coal companies in Russian main coal-producing region. Coal export via Far Eastern ports is the only break-even route for many Russian suppliers given lower transportation costs to the Asia-Pacific market.
The CCA’s baseline forecast, which assumes that current conditions will remain more or less unchanged, predicts a reduction in Russian coal exports to 190 mio t in 2026. If the situation significantly improves (optimistic scenario), the exports could reach 210 mio t, but they would anyway remain below the levels seen in 2019–2022. If the situation deteriorates (stress or negative scenario), Russian coal exports may drop to 180 mio t or lower.
Meanwhile, export growth remains a critical condition for the sustainable development of Russian coal industry. In July 2022, i.e. already taking into account the realities that emerged after the start of the military operation in Ukraine, the Russian Ministry of Energy predicted that coal exports would reach 220 mio t by 2026 in the target scenario, while the negative scenario assumed a decline to 195 mio t.
The actual volumes of Russian coal exports show that the industry is running under the pessimistic scenario, and the former export volumes of over 200 mio t remain definitely out of reach for now.
Source: CCA Analysis
