Surging new demand is colliding with policy- driven power plant closures and mounting challenges to bring new resources and enabling infrastructure to the grid. As coal plant retirements accelerate due to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) regulatory agenda, new renewable energy and interstate transmission additions aren’t materializing to reliably meet existing power demand, much less rapid demand growth. There is a widening gap growing between the power supply the nation needs and what it will soon have. Shortages are imminent.
Over of India’s petcoke imports & demand for the month of March
Coal shipments are forecast to fall by 4.0% between 2023 and 2025. Fast growth in domestic mining in India and increased renewable electricity production could curb demand. Coal shipments could fall by 1-2% in 2024 and 2-3% in 2025. We now expect a lower decline in coal shipments than in our previous update. Whereas India has continued to ramp up coal mining, China saw its production fall 4.1% y/y during the first quarter of 2024, supporting imports. In Shanxi, one of China’s largest mining regions, safety concerns emerged, and officials are now expecting a 4% fall in local
In Mar 2024, India’s solid fuel imports grew 8.83% y-o-y to 23.59 MMT. Non coking coal imports grew by merely 4.94% to 15.12 MMT. But pet coke imports have grown sharply this year. In Mar 2024, they achieved a monthly record of 1.69 MMT a growth of 26.54% y-o-y. This follows strong growth of ~ 48% and 59% in Jan and Feb 2024. Coking coal and PCI also showed strong y-o-y growth.
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