Long term thermal coal pricing

Russia is likely to remain sidelined (via sanctions) from key markets for a long time, so expect trade flows to continue re-balancing. As a result, market and price bifurcation will be an ongoing feature in all coal markets. Trade blocs will become a stronger feature. Australian exporters (particularly PCI and thermal) will see increased competition from Russia in non- sanctioning markets (e.g. India) but less competition in sanctioning markets. China’s return to Australian imports will support markets in the short-mid term. Recovering demand and structurally constrained supply will result in all coal prices remaining above long-term averages for several years. […]