In January-August 2025, Russian coal exports to China declined to 59.6 mio t (-3.5 mio t or -5.5% vs. 8 months of 2024), according to China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC).
The decrease in Russian coal supplies resulted from serious logistical issues, high railway tariffs, international sanctions and ruble appreciation. Given depressed global prices, these factors are forcing most producers to export coal at zero or negative margins, that will likely lead to further production and supplies cuts in the near term.
China’s total coal imports in Jan-Aug 2025 reached 300.0 mio t (-41.6 mio t or -12.2% y-o-y). In August 2025, imports dropped to 59.6 mio t (-5.5% vs. August 2024).
Russia remains China’s second-largest coal supplier after Indonesia, followed by Mongolia and Australia.
In Jan-Aug 2025, Indonesia, China’s top coal provider, reduced exports to 121.8 mio t (-25.4 mio t or -17.3% y-o-y). Mongolia and Australia also decreased supplies to 52.6 mio t (-1.2 mio t or -2.2%) and 48.9 mio t (-1.1 mio t or -2.2%) respectively.
Market share shifts among major suppliers (Jan-Aug 2025 vs. Jan-Aug 2024):
· Indonesia: 40.6% (-2.4 p. p.);
· Russia: 19.9% (+1.4 p.p.);
· Mongolia: 17.5% (+1.8 p.p.);
· Australia: 16.3% (+1.7 p.p.).
China’s domestic coal production increased to 3.17 billion t (+2.8% y-o-y) in January-August 2025, reducing import volumes.
Despite strong demand, Russian coal exports to China continue to decline due to systemic issues and crisis in the coal industry, potentially leading to Russia’s shrinking market share and growing competitive pressure from other suppliers.
Source: CCA Analysis
