Losses of Russian coal companies reach 4 bln USD in 2025 YTD
December 2, 2025
In January–October 2025, Russian coal exports to China dropped to 73.1 mio t (-6.6 mio t or -8.3% vs. Jan–Oct 2024), according to General Administration of Customs of China (GACC).
In October 2025, Russian coal supplies to China plunged to 6.8 mio t (-1.4 mio t or -9.7% vs. Oct 2024), marking the seventh consecutive month of y-o-y decline since April.
The decrease in Russian coal supplies resulted from serious logistical issues, high railway tariffs, international sanctions and ruble appreciation. Given depressed global prices, these factors are forcing most producers to export coal at zero or negative margins, that will likely lead to further production and supplies cuts in the near term.
In October 2025, China’s coal imports fell to 41.7 mio t (-1.6 mio t or -3.4% vs. Oct 2024).
China’s total coal imports in Jan-Oct 2025 dipped to 387.6 mio t (-47.9 mio t or -11.0% y-o-y).
Russia remains China’s second-largest coal supplier after Indonesia, followed by Mongolia and Australia.
In Jan-Oct 2025, Indonesia, China’s top coal provider, reduced exports to 161.9 mio t (-28.0 mio t or -14.7% y-o-y).
Mongolia managed to ramp up its shipments to 69.7 mio t (+2.6 mio t or +3.9% y-o-y), while Australian deliveries went down to 62.3 mio t (-2.5 mio t or -3.9% y-o-y).
Market share shifts among major suppliers (Jan-Oct 2025 vs. Jan-Oct 2024):
In October 2025 China’s domestic coal production fell to 406.8 mio t (-2.3% y-o-y). Nevertheless, the output of 3.97 billion t for 10 months of 2025 remained 1.5% higher y-o-y. Chinese restrictions on coal mining may become even tighter by the end of 2025, making a rapid recovery in Chinese output unlikely.
Despite strong demand, Russian coal exports to China continue to decline due to systemic issues and crisis in the coal industry, potentially leading to Russia’s shrinking market share and growing competitive pressure from other suppliers.
Source: CCA Analysis
