Amid economic sanctions imposed by the United States, the international market may be deprived in 2024 not only of the tonnage supplied by SUEK and Mechel, but also of the volume exported by other Russian suppliers refusing to dispatch to the ports connected with the sanctioned companies.
Meanwhile, it is impossible to redirect the allocated volumes to other ports due to the limited throughput capacity of the Eastern Range, congestion in the North-Western direction and the inflated transshipment rates in Taman terminal.
Sibanthracite suspended rail shipments to Murmansk port, which amounted to 0.33 mio t in January-February 2024 (0.85 mio t in 2023), Elgaugol suspended shipments to Daltransugol terminal, which totaled 0.37 mio t in January-February 2024 (0.45 mio t in 2023 г.).
Coal volumes shipped by third-party coal companies to the ports connected with the sanctioned companies, including Murmansk Port, Daltransugol, Posyet, Maly Port and Vanino Commercial Sea Port, amounted to 5.5 mio t in 2023 (38.9 mio t including shipments of SUEK and Mechel).
In January-February, 1.3 mio t have been shipped to these ports since the beginning of the year.
Thus, in 2024 additional losses for the export market will amount to 4.0-4.5 mio t, because they cannot be distributed to other directions.
Taking into account the volumes of third-party shippers through sanctioned ports, the volume of losses to the previously estimated at 30 mio t of SUEK and Mechel in 2024 will amount to an additional 4.0-4.5 mio t and exceed 45 mio t in 2025 if the sanctions regime remains in place.
Source: CCA Analytics
