Russian coking coal exports in June 2024, according to preliminary data, amounted to 3.7 mio t (-1.2 mio t or -18% m-o-m), having reached the minimum since May 2022.
In 1H 2024, shipments decreased to 25 mio t (-1.9 mio t or -7% y-o-y). The downward trend was driven by a significant drop in prices on the international market, exchange rate export duty, increased production costs, as well as continued limited transportation capacities.
From May 1, 2024, the government abolished the duty for exporters of thermal coal and anthracite, but exports of coking material are still subject to the duty (with the dollar exchange rate of 80-85 rubles the duty is 4%, with 85-90 rubles the duty is 4.5%, with 90-95 rubles the duty is 5.5%, with 95 rubles per dollar and more the duty amounts to 7%).
As a result of falling prices on the international market, rising production costs and transportation costs, exporters are already facing losses in profitability on most routes.
Moreover, amid the tightening of Western sanctions, Russian companies are supplying coal at a discount to international benchmarks. Furthermore, in 2025, the situation in the coal industry will become more complicated as the tax burden on exporters will increase due to the introduction of a 10% surcharge on mineral extraction tax (MET).
Total exports of Russian coal, including thermal coal, in January-June 2024 dropped to 99.0 mio t (-9.6 mio t or -8.8% y-o-y).
Source: CCA Analytics
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