Last week, European thermal coal indices rose above 104 USD/t. Prices were supported by the recovery of gas and oil quotations after the postponement of the introduction of higher import duties by the U.S. Furthermore, export shipments from the U.S. and Colombia declined over the past week, while coal consumption in Germany increased.
Gas quotations at the TTF hub strengthened to 415.62 USD/1,000 m3 (+34.64 USD/1,000 m3 w-o-w), correcting upwards after hitting a 7-month low. The level of European gas storage reserves slightly improved to 35%. Coal stocks at ARA terminals totaled 3.54 mio t (+0.03 mio t w-o-w).
South African High-CV 6,000 went up above 89 USD/t, following the European market and being supported by higher demand for spot supplies from Indian sponge iron producers.
South African traders faced difficulties in purchasing Medium- and Low-CV material, as producers refuse to cut prices, despite falling export quotes, and divert supplies to the domestic market.
Exxaro reported a 7% drop in coal production in 2024 to 39.5 mio t due to lower demand from domestic consumers. However, exports surged 37% to 7 mio t, fueled by stable demand in India and Asian countries.
In China, spot prices for 5,500 NAR coal at the port of Qinhuangdao remain flat at 93-94 USD/t amid record port inventories, high production rates and the end of the heating season in distant northern regions, that possibly may lead to oversupply. However, China’s GDP growth in Q1 2025 was stronger than expected and amounted to 5.4% vs. the forecasted 5%, caused by the growth in industrial production, including cement and steel industry.
Given the geopolitical uncertainty, many consumers in the industrial sector are taking a wait-and-see attitude. Nevertheless, because of the trade war, some market participants believe the Chinese authorities are close to launching a new round of economic stimulus to boost domestic consumption and reduce dependence on exports.
Inventories at the 9 major ports spiked to the historical high of 32.58 mio t (+2.86 mio t w-o-w), while coal stocks at the 6 largest coastal TPPs totaled 13.78 mio t (+0.27 mio t w-o-w).
Indonesian 5,900 GAR dropped to 82 USD/t, the price of 4,200 GAR fell to 48 USD/t on limited demand in traditional markets.
Indonesian coal production plunged 7.5% to 183.7 mio t from January to April 16, 2025, on unfavorable fundamentals and adverse weather conditions. Coal companies are not expected to boost output in order to lower their costs, given the low prices in the international market.
Indonesian authorities are introducing new mining tax (royalty) rules from April 26, reducing the tax for some of the largest coal companies (including Adaro Andalan Indonesia, Arutmin Indonesia), while increasing it for minor producers (Bhumi Rantau Energi, Bukit Asam) by around 1% for exports. Meanwhile, the tax rate will also be linked to the HBA index and may rise with the indices.
Australian coal quotations moved in mixed directions. Australian High-CV 6,000 maintained its downtrend, sliding to 92 USD/t on falling demand from Japan, while Medium-CV 5,500 strengthened above 71 USD/t due to stronger demand from India.
Australia’s HCC metallurgical coal index surged above 187 USD/t on concerns of tightening supply, caused by several mine accidents at Appin (South32) and Moranbah North (Anglo American). Moreover, China saw coke prices rise on April 15. Meanwhile, Indian consumers are taking a wait-and-see attitude, as they consider the current price level to be high.
Source: CCA Analysis
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