Losses of Russian coal companies reach 4 bln USD in 2025 YTD
December 2, 2025
European thermal coal indices recovered above 100 USD/t, trading in a range of 101–104 USD/t during the week, supported by higher natural gas prices. Despite warm weather across much of the continent, temperatures remain above seasonal norms in several countries.
The EU agreed to import Kazakh coal via Russian Ust-Luga port, amending sanctions regulations to enable higher volumes from Kazakhstan.
Gas quotations on the TTF hub rose to 406.68 USD/1,000 m3 (+8.01 USD/1,000 m3 w-o-w). European gas storage injections continued steadily, with underground gas storage (UGS) facilities reaching 68% of total capacity (+3 p.p. over the week) on the back of stable inflows. As of July 30, coal stocks at ARA terminals increased to 3.28 mio t (+0.12 mio t w-o-w).
South African High-CV 6,000 dropped below 91 USD/t, nearing its monthly lows, pressured by the end of railway maintenance and expectations of increased rail shipments. By the end of the week, the price returned to the upper limit of last week’s trading range at 92 USD/t. Transnet is planning to raise weekly deliveries to Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) from 21 to 24 trains to reach its 2025 coal export target of 60 mio t. Stocks at RBCT stood at 2.83 mio t.
In China, spot prices for 5,500 NAR coal at the port of Qinhuangdao climbed above 91 USD/t, supported by higher consumption and lower port stockpiles. Heavy rains disrupted both mining in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi as well as rail shipments, particularly along the Daqin line. Nevertheless, early signs of demand cooling were seen in northern provinces, where some Shaanxi-based suppliers failed to secure tenders.
Further rainfall is expected in southern and eastern China through late August, potentially limiting deliveries to coal importing regions.
Inventories at the 9 largest ports fell to 25.75 mio t (-1.43 mio t w-o-w), while coal stocks at the 6 largest coastal TPPs totaled 13.97 mio t (-0.05 mio t w-o-w). Daily coal burn went down to 878 kt/day from 879 kt/day a week earlier.
Indonesian 5,900 GAR ticked higher to 72 USD/t, while the price of 4,200 GAR edged up slightly to just above 40.5 USD/t. Temperatures in parts of the Asia-Pacific cooled, softening demand, notably in India, which entered monsoon season. Market sources reported tight supply, with some producers shifting volumes to the domestic market due to low export pricing.
Indonesia’s coal output dropped 9% year-on-year in H1 2025 to 370.61 mio t, caused by abnormal rains in Q2 and regulatory efforts to curb oversupply. However, some forecasts suggest drier weather in Q3 may help support production growth.
Australian High-CV 6,000 rebounded after last week’s correction, almost reaching 114 USD/t, supported by hot weather across Asia-Pacific, vessel queues at ports, and short-covering in the paper market.
Australia’s HCC metallurgical coal index extended its upward move above 175 USD/t, driven by gains in China on concerns over possible state-mandated output cuts aimed at reducing oversupply. Additional support came from deflation-fighting measures and broader economic reforms in China.
Source: CCA Analysis
