In Q3 and Q4 2023, Russian rail shipments of coal for export are expected to decrease. The reduction will occur not only in relation to the first and second quarters of this year, but also in comparison with the same periods of 2022.
The key reason for lower rail shipments in H2 2023 is a reduction in coal deliveries in the Western direction. Since the beginning of summer, Russian Railways (RZD) was curbing railcar shipments to the ports in the western part of the country.
By the end of 2023, the year-on-year decrease in Russian rail shipments will amount up to 2 mio t. At the same time, in the total export volume the reduction can be offset by the growth of coal shipments from Sakhalin ports. Total Russian coal export volume this year is on track to remain at 2022’s level or about 210 mio t.
Thus, the growth in early 2023 will be canceled out by the drop in the second half of the year.