Russian coal exports to China drop 6.5% in 2025

In 2025, Russian coal exports to China dropped to 88.9 mio t (-6.2 mio t or -6.5% vs. 2024), according to the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC). In December 2025, Russian coal supplies to China rose to 8.5 mio t (+1.4 mio t or +19.7% vs. Dec 2024), interrupting an eight-month streak of consecutive y-o-y declines.

The decrease in Russian coal supplies resulted from serious logistical issues, high railway tariffs, international sanctions and ruble appreciation. Given depressed global prices, these factors are forcing most producers to export coal at zero or negative margins, which will likely lead to further production and supply cuts in the near term.

In December 2025, China’s total coal imports increased to 58.6 mio t (+6.3 mio t or +12.0% vs. Dec 2024). China’s total coal imports in 2025 dipped to 490.5 mio t (-52.3 mio t or -9.6% y-o-y).

In 2025, Mongolian coal supplies surged to 89.0 mio t, slightly exceeding Russian shipments (88.9 mio t), enabling Mongolia to rank second among coal exporters to China, ahead of Russia, followed by Australia (77.5 mio t).

In 2025, Indonesia, China’s top coal provider, reduced exports to 211.5 mio t (-29.5 mio t or -12.2% y-o-y). Mongolia managed to ramp up its shipments to 89.0 mio t (+6.1 mio t or +7.4% y-o-y), while Australian deliveries went down to 77.5 mio t (-5.7 mio t or -6.8% y-o-y).

Market share shifts among major suppliers (2025 vs. 2024):
· Indonesia: 43.1% (-1.3 p.p.);
· Russia: 18.1% (+0.6 p.p.);
· Mongolia: 18.1% (+2.8 p.p.);
· Australia: 15.8% (+0.5 p.p.).

In 2025, China’s domestic coal production reached a record high of 4.83 billion t (+1.2% y-o-y), driven by energy security policy. However, after strong growth in H1 2025 (+5.4% y-o-y), output slowed in H2 2025 due to increased safety inspections and weakening demand, leading to production declines (including a 2.3% drop in October) and reduced import volumes.

Despite strong demand, Russian coal exports to China continue to decline due to systemic issues and crisis in the coal industry, potentially leading to Russia’s shrinking market share and growing competitive pressure from other suppliers.

Source: CCA Analysis