Russian coal exports to China by rail plunge 27% in December
February 16, 2026
Global coal prices strengthened across key regions, supported by falling stockpiles, supply disruptions and resilient demand in Europe, China and India.
Price gains continued in the coal market: indices in Europe rose; in China, coal became more expensive; in Australia, thermal material prices advanced, while metallurgical quotations corrected downwards.
Over the past week, European thermal coal indices on the spot market strengthened notably above 107 USD/t. Quotations found support from a drop in CO2 emission allowance costs, which again made coal-fired generation profitable (the coal spread exceeded 5.54 EUR/MWh). Furthermore, coal stocks at ARA terminals declined to a 7-month low amid falling shipments from Colombia and the US. Over the past week, Germany’s renewable share fell from 48% to 39% because of lower renewable generation.
Gas quotations on the TTF hub decreased to 395.81 USD/1,000 m3 (-14.96 USD/1,000 m3 w-o-w). European UGS inventories fell by 3 percentage points to 37%, while pipeline gas supplies from Norway declined. Coal stocks at ARA terminals decreased to 2.91 mio t (-0.20 mio t or -6% w-o-w).
South African High-CV 6,000 climbed to a 7-month high of 100 USD/t, supported by a weaker US dollar and uncertainty surrounding Indonesian supplies. Demand from India, where sponge iron prices are strengthening because of higher steel output, is also providing support. However, a significant bid-offer spread persists, as South African exporters are in no hurry to sell.
State rail operator Transnet stated it is unlikely to achieve the ambitious target (77 mio t) for thermal coal railings over the next two years, as more time is needed to upgrade the rail network leading to the RBCT coal terminal. Consequently, loading volumes in 2026 are expected at 65 mio t.
In China, spot prices for 5,500 NAR coal at the port of Qinhuangdao rose to 102 USD/t. Supply continues to shrink on the spot market alongside stockpiles, as a large number of coal mines suspended operations ahead of the Lunar New Year celebrations and uncertainty persists in the import market.
Some traders believe that after the holidays, certain coastal coal-fired power plants will be forced to return to the spot market, as domestic coal supply is unlikely to keep pace with the anticipated rapid rebound in industrial activity.
Stocks at 9 major ports fell to 24.55 mio t (-0.26 mio t w-o-w), while inventories at 6 major coastal thermal power plants decreased to 13.23 mio t (-0.07 mio t w-o-w).
Indonesian 5,900 GAR continued its advance above 84 USD/t, while the price of 4,200 GAR increased to 49 USD/t against a backdrop of ongoing uncertainty over coal production volumes. Authorities are requiring priority supplies to domestic consumers, which has led to reduced export shipments in early 2026. Volumes for the week declined by 6% week-on-week and by 2% year-on-year. Exports to China fell by 10% compared to the previous week — to 3.24 mio t from 3.60 mio t — and to India by 22%, to 1.60 mio t from 2.04 mio t. Ramadan in Indonesia, running from February 17 to March 19, could further curtail supply.
The ban on coal transport via public roads in South Sumatra, in effect since January 1, has forced about 80% of the 34 companies (approximately 27 producers) to declare force majeure to international buyers. Accordingly, around 10 coal producers in South Sumatra have been permitted to resume use of public roads, although the impact on coal exports is expected to be minor.
Furthermore, in early February, Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources approved 100% of the mining plans submitted by major coal companies and state-owned enterprises, while mandating that they reserve at least 30% of their annual output for the domestic market, implying reduced export volumes.
Indonesian officials emphasize that 2026 coal production quotas have not yet been finalized, despite reports that some key producers are facing far steeper cuts than others. Many mining companies report that the online platform for approvals has already required them to resubmit plans, but with reduced volumes.
Australian High-CV 6,000 held above 114 USD/t, meeting resistance at a 6-month high. Mid-CV material, however, appreciated significantly above 81 USD/t because of increased demand from Asian consumers seeking alternatives to Indonesian material.
Australia’s HCC metallurgical coal index corrected below 249 USD/t after an extended rally, as concerns over supply shortages eased following greater availability of spot volumes. China is also seeing a slowdown ahead of the New Year holidays. Meanwhile, rainy weather is forecast to persist in Queensland over the next 7–10 days, and operations are expected to be affected, though not as severely as in January.
Source: CCA
