The Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation forecasts that the volume of coal exports from Russia in 2023 will remain unchanged compared to the previous year and will amount to about 220 mio t, as the supplies are supported by high demand from the Asia-Pacific region.
In 2023, Russia will continue to increase coal exports to China and Southeast Asia, including India, Vietnam and Malaysia. Last year, despite the decline in coal exports from Russia to 221 mio t. (-2 mio t or -1% y-o-y), shipments to China jumped 26% to 67.3 mio t. Additionally, in May this year SUEK announced its plans to expand shipments to the country to 20 mio t in 2023 (+13 mio t y-o-y). Russia’s coal exports to China may exceed 10 mio t per month, according to some estimates.
It is also expected that Russia’s coal production in 2023 will remain at the level of 2022 (440 mio t). At the same time, for the period from January to May 2023, the volume increased to 182.5 mio t. In the period between January and May 2023 the output reached 182.5 mio t (+2.5 mio t or +1.4% y-o-y).
However, Russian exporters still face factors limiting the expansion of exports, including the capacity of railroads, especially in the eastern direction. Additional pressure on export performance in 2023 could come from a drop in price levels, which have already fallen significantly since the beginning of the year but are still above average levels of previous years.