According to the Ministry of Energy’s forecast, Russian coal production in 2023 will remain almost flat at 440.0 mio t (-3.5 mio t or -0.7% y-o-y), while exports are expected to reach 220.0 mio t (+10.3 mio t or +5.3% y-o-y).
The introduction of an embargo on imports of all types of Russian coal to the EU countries and the UK from August 10, 2022, triggered the development of new cargo flows and changes in the logistics of coal export.
Redirecting supplies to the Asia-Pacific countries made it possible to offset the loss of the European market.
However, the increase in exports by 10 mio t and more depends on the availability of railway infrastructure, which is already operating at its limits, especially in the Eastern direction.
Russia’s share in global coal exports is expanding and currently totals 16%, with demand for Russian coal twice exceeding export capacity.
In January-October 2023, coal production amounted to 360.4 mio t (+1.2 mio t or +0.3% y-o-y), while exports jumped to 181.3 mio t (+6.9 mio t or +3.9% y-o-y).
Source: CAA
