The European thermal coal market saw prices rise above 107-109 USD/t, driven up by the return of high temperatures at the beginning of this week. However, statements by US suppliers, that they are ready to boost supplies to Europe if quotes stabilize above 110 USD/t may limit the upward movement of the indices.
The margin on fossil fuel generation in Germany increased, owing to a rise in electricity prices from €64.88/MWh to €92.85/MWh, and a decline in the share of renewable generation from 77% to 63%, due to the heatwave and growing demand for air conditioning. The share of fossil fuel generation spiked from 23% to 37%.
Gas quotations on the TTF hub climbed to 417.58 USD/1,000 m3 (+12.7 USD/1,000 m3 w-o-w). Currently, European underground gas storage facilities (UGS) are at almost 61% of the full capacity.
As of July 9, 2025, coal stocks at ARA terminals increased slightly to 2.94 mio t (+0.07 mio t w-o-w).
South African High-CV 6,000 went above 96 USD/t, supported by the derailment of railcars on June 30 ,as well as low stocks at the RBCT terminal ahead of railway maintenance.
Stockpiles at the RBCT terminal were down to 3.39 mio t (-0.20 mio t w-o-w). This situation is causing concern among market participants, as an accepted standard of 5 mio t reserves is considered the typical level ahead of maintenance. In July, exports through RBCT are expected to reach 3.7 mio t (-0.59 mio t or -14% vs. June 2025), because of maintenance from July 15 to 26 and derailments.
In China, spot prices for 5,500 NAR coal at the port of Qinhuangdao strengthened slightly above 86 USD/t on the back of rising consumption and declining port stocks. Moreover, coal production growth slowed at open-pit mines in regions, such as Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, resulting from unfavorable weather conditions, while demand from power generation companies intensified due to hot temperatures and higher electricity consumption.
Shenhua again raised its purchase prices for third-party suppliers.
Inventories at the 9 largest ports decreased to 27.37 mio t (-0.23 mio t w-o-w), while coal stocks at the 6 largest coastal TPPs totaled 14.27 mio t (-0.06 mio t). The consumption climbed to 898 kt/day from 845 kt/day a week earlier.
Indonesian 5,900 GAR slipped to 71 USD/t, while the price of 4,200 GAR grew above 40 USD/t. Market participants point out that supply exceeds demand, with the highest activity observed in the Low-CV segment, which has again become attractive to Chinese consumers.
The Indonesian authorities are considering introducing export duties on coal in 2026 to raise budget revenues. This initiative was criticized by mining companies because of the weak coal market.
Australian High-CV 6,000 keeps trading below 110 USD/t, while prices for 5,500 rose slightly above 65 USD/t.
Storms at the port of Newcastle slowed coal shipments, as local authorities imposed navigation restrictions, leading to delays and demurrage.
Australian power companies are paying a higher price for local high-ash coal, following increased demand, caused by the cold winter in the country. Currently, they are ready to pay around 81 USD/t for 5,500 NAR material.
Australia’s HCC metallurgical coal index tumbled below 178 USD/t, after a significant rise a week earlier, caused by a surge in supply from the country. Some Chinese consumers are considering reselling Australian material to purchase local coal of similar quality at more attractive prices.
Source: CCA Analysis
