Under preliminary data, in 2022 Russian supplies of thermal coal to India increased 3.5-fold up to 8.4 mio t (+6.0 mio t or +250% y-o-y).
As a result of international sanctions and the EU embargo on Russian coal exports to Europe imposed in August 2022, Russian suppliers redirected cargo flows to Asian markets, including China, India, and Turkey, while increasing shipments to North Africa and Brazil. Russian coal companies had to give considerable discounts, which hiked up to 60-70% to the global indices in the autumn of 2022.
Nevertheless, owing to more attractive prices compared to Australian and South African coal quotes, Russian suppliers managed to substantially ramp up export volumes and expand their share in the markets of India and China.
Despite India’s plans to further increase its own coal production, which is roughly estimated at 862 mio t in 2022 (+92 mio t or +12% y-o-y), the demand for coal imports will persist at least in the short to medium term. In January 2023, the Indian government urged power companies to import up to 6% of their coal consumption volumes within April-September 2023 to prevent power shortages and blackouts in summer.
Coal generation accounts for over 70% in India’s energy mix. As of 2022, the total capacity of coal-fired thermal power plants under construction in India was 31.3 GW, while the capacity of coal-fired power projects is estimated at additional 25.7 GW.