RZD and the Kemerovo region (Kuzbass) signed an agreement on coal exports eastbound for 2025 in the amount of 54.1 mio t (flat y-o-y). Although it is expected that from Q2 2025 there will be a full transition to innovative railcars with increased carrying capacity.
Even though such agreements between the region and RZD are concluded every year, they are not performed 100%. In 2024, with the agreed plan of 54.1 mio t, the actual export volume amounted to 53.4 mio t (98.7%). The growth of Russian coal exports through the Far East is achieved due to other regions, primarily Yakutia.
Therefore, despite the gradual increase in carrying capacity of the Eastern range, there is no growth in coal exports, given the lowering of its priority due to the efforts of RZD to export more profitable cargoes. In addition, RZD refused to approve guaranteed coal supplies from other regions, leading to a further reduction in exports from Russia.
Additional negative factors include high rail transportation tariffs, anti-Russian sanctions and falling coal prices on the international market.
Source: CCA Analysis
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