Global coal prices continued to increase over the past week: indices in Europe rose; in China, coal became more expensive; in Australia, thermal material advanced, while metallurgical quotations declined.
Over the past week, European thermal coal indices continued their upward move above 114.5 USD/t, reaching the highest level since January 2025. Quotations found support from short-covering on the paper market, as well as a drop in coal stocks at ARA terminals to a 12-year low against a backdrop of rising consumption due to a significant cold snap and falling CO2 emission allowance costs.
Allowance prices began to decline sharply following criticism from some EU leaders and the European Commission’s announcement of a review of the Emissions Trading System (ETS) in Q3 2026, as some member states advocate for greater price predictability by extending free allowances or adjusting emission caps.
Gas quotations on the TTF hub fell to 383.42 USD/1,000 m3 (-12.56 USD/1,000 m3 w-o-w), reaching a low of 360 USD/1,000 m3 before rebounding to around 400 USD/1,000 m3. European UGS inventories declined by 4 percentage points to 33%. Coal stocks at ARA terminals decreased by 9% to 2.66 mio t (-0.25 mio t w-o-w).
South African High-CV 6,000 rose to a one-year high, exceeding 103 USD/t, driven by higher European quotations, a weaker US dollar, and uncertainty surrounding Indonesian supplies. Furthermore, demand from Indian sponge iron producers for South African coal is growing due to sustained prices for their finished product.
South Africa’s Ministry of Energy is preparing a proposal to suspend the carbon tax, introduced in 2019 to implement the “polluter pays” principle, as opinions within the government about its ineffectiveness have strengthened.
In China, spot prices for 5,500 NAR coal at the port of Qinhuangdao stood at 103 USD/t (+1 USD/t w-o-w). Trading on the Chinese domestic market is suspended until February 23 due to the Chinese New Year (Spring Festival) celebrations, although quotations continued to strengthen ahead of the holidays.
On the domestic market, there is little indication of end-user concern about post-holiday supplies, although some market participants believe that demand recovery in late February may outpace the pace of mining. This is because small mines may not resume operations until early March, and production safety issues could impact output volumes ahead of the National People’s Congress (March 5).
However, forecasts indicate warming in most regions over the next ten days (average temperatures will be 1–3°C above the climatic norm), which could put pressure on prices.
Stocks at 9 major ports fell to 23.95 mio t (-0.60 mio t w-o-w), while inventories at 6 major coastal thermal power plants increased to 13.43 mio t (+0.20 mio t w-o-w).
Indonesian 5,900 GAR continued its ascent above 85 USD/t, while 4,200 GAR increased to 50 USD/t due to ongoing uncertainty over the country’s coal production volumes. Despite the holiday lull, tension remained in the market, supporting quotations. According to traders, delays in regulatory decisions have caused many suppliers to withdraw from the market.
However, the current price situation has had a direct impact on demand in China, where imported coal is losing its economic attractiveness.
The thermal coal benchmark (Harga Batubara Acuan, HBA) was lowered by 1.8-3.0% for all grades for the second half of February. This decision is attributed to uncertainty surrounding 2026 production quotas, as well as a reduction in transactions amid limited supply.
Australian High-CV 6,000 surged above 117 USD/t, breaking through resistance at the 6-month high. Mid-CV coal also appreciated significantly, as Asian thermal coal buyers actively consider alternatives to Indonesian supplies.
Glencore’s director stated that the company would consider reducing coal production volumes, following Indonesia’s example, despite rising prices.
The decision and volumes will only affect Australian assets and will depend on how significantly Indonesia’s coal policy impacts the market. Glencore also expressed openness to new major mergers after talks with Rio Tino were unsuccessful.
Australia’s HCC metallurgical coal index was down to 243 USD/t, continuing to correct downwards, resulting from increased supply that exceeded expectations and is recovering faster than forecast.
Australian Coronado Global Resources announced an immediate production cut in West Virginia (USA) because of prices falling below cost. Production will be limited to fulfilling contractual obligations carried over from 2025. The asset faces temporary suspension if profitable sales cannot be secured.
Source: CCA
