Russian coal exports are facing uncertainty as suppliers adopt a wait-and-see approach amid Middle East tensions and mounting logistics issues.
Some Russian coal suppliers have adopted a wait-and-see stance regarding export shipments from Far Eastern ports. The tactical pause stems from logistical constraints on key export routes and expectations of further price dynamics amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East.
Global coal prices have already responded to geopolitical tensions. Following a surge in European natural gas prices, coal indices at ARA terminals rose from 105 USD/t to 125–130 USD/t, while Australian High-CV 6,000 at the port of Newcastle reached 130 USD/t, gaining 15 USD/t. Should further disruptions to energy shipments from the Middle East occur, market participants anticipate a continued price rally.
The situation is compounded by logistical issues in Russia. Railway restrictions on the Eastern range in January and February, exacerbated by train derailments in February, disrupted loadings on the Far Eastern route. Simultaneously, deteriorating ice conditions in the Baltic amplified the overall instability of the export infrastructure.
Missed shipment schedules trigger penalty fees and vessel demurrage costs, raising risks for thermal coal suppliers, many of which operate with zero or negative margins.
In 2025, Russian coal shipments to China dropped to 88.9 mio t (-6.2 mio t or -6.5% vs. 2024). Russian share in Chinese coal imports stood at 18%. Future dynamics will depend on the timeline for resolving the logistics crisis and the trajectory of global prices.
Source: CCA
