Global coal prices show mixed regional trends

Global coal prices diverged in Week 45, with Europe flat, China rising, and Australia/South Africa firming on shifting demand, weather and logistics.

The coal market showed mixed trends: prices in Europe remained stable; Chinese coal indices kept climbing; Australia maintained an upward trend for thermal material, while metallurgical coal quotations held their ground.

Over the past week, European thermal coal indices traded within a narrow range of 96-97 USD/t. Pressure on price growth comes from declining electricity consumption after the October peak, as well as rising inventories and increasing wind generation in Germany. Despite a short-term cold snap at the end of October, the November forecast indicates above-average temperatures in Central and Western Europe, which is limiting coal demand for heating and power generation.

Gas quotations on the TTF amounted to 377.52 USD/1,000 m³ (+6.50 USD/1,000 m³ w-o-w). Gas reserves in European underground storage facilities remained at 83%. Coal stocks at ARA terminals exceeded 4.0 mio t, following increased shipments from Colombia.

South African High-CV 6,000 moved above 84 USD/t on the back of improving demand from India. After the national holidays concluded, Indian traders returned to the market, purchasing December contracts. Furthermore, South African coal became an alternative for Asian buyers against rising prices in Indonesia and Australia.

Some buyers anticipate further price hikes by mid-November, that will be supported by stock replenishment in Asia and an improving freight situation.

In China, spot prices for 5,500 NAR coal at the port of Qinhuangdao gained 2 USD/t to 111 USD/t. The Chinese market maintains its upward trend amid constrained supply, the start of the heating season, active stock replenishment by generating companies, and declining port inventories.

Moreover, most market participants expect limited production growth in the foreseeable future, as environmental inspections have tightened in the main coal-producing regions of Shaanxi province, while authorities in Inner Mongolia warned about consequences for exceeding approved production volumes at local mining enterprises.

Bullish sentiment is supported by forecasts of potentially prolonged price increases, although more cautious participants believe the optimism is partly linked to an expected sharp 10°C temperature drop in most regions in the coming days, which could mean the current price rally is short-lived.

The semi-governmental China National Coal Association (CNCA) presented a forecast, suggesting the country’s total coal consumption could peak at 5.0 billion t per year by 2028, higher than the 2024 figure of 4.9 billion t. According to expert estimates, the figures could fluctuate within the range of 4.8–5.0 billion t/y over the next 5–10 years, after which structural decline will begin.

Inventories at the 9 largest ports decreased to 23.45 mio t (-0.30 mio t w-o-w). Coal stocks at the 6 largest coastal TPPs totaled 14.17 mio t (-0.05 mio t w-o-w), while consumption declined to 755 kt/day (-10 kt/day w-o-w).

Indonesian 5,900 GAR climbed to nearly 80 USD/t, while the price of 4,200 GAR edged higher, approaching to 46 USD/t. The Indonesian market continues to be supported by revived Asian demand, as well as adverse weather conditions, that are negatively impacting mining and spot supply. Part of the production is being directed to the domestic market, where state-owned companies are preparing for growing electricity consumption during the rainy season, that further reduces export volumes. Some producers in Kalimantan report potential 5–10% production cuts in November because of heavy rains.

Australian High-CV 6,000 rose to nearly 109 USD/t, owing to limited supply and higher demand from Northeast Asian countries. Limiting factors in Indonesia are also supporting the demand for Australian material.

Meanwhile, Australian suppliers are in no rush to ramp up spot volumes, constraining coal availability and supporting quotations.

Japanese power utilities are securing supplies for Q4 ahead of the winter season. Chinese state-owned companies resumed purchases of premium 6,000 NAR grades as domestic prices in China strengthened.

Australia’s HCC metallurgical coal index firmed above 196 USD/t. Metallurgical coal quotations in Australia are in a stabilization phase after a prolonged decline in September-October. Prices are holding on account of limited supply, steady demand from Asian countries, and expectations for 2025-2026 contract negotiations.

In Japan and Korea, rising steel prices stabilized blast furnace utilization rates, increasing consumption of coking coal. Rising domestic coke prices in China and renewed activity from Indian buyers also provided support to indices, despite some Indian market participants adopted a wait-and-see stance, anticipating price declines.

Overall, global coal prices remain supported by Asian demand and weather-related supply limits heading into mid-November.

Source: CCA Analysis